Firstly a brief description of the methodology.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each EPL game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or PE for short.

By comparing those totals immediately before and immediately after a goal is scored it is possible to assign a value to that goal.Similar significant events that occur during a game,such as dismissals,goalkeeping saves and referring mistakes can be treated in the same way.

All probabilities account for the respective abilities of both sides.An early goal by a vastly superior side is for example less “valuable” than one scored by a team in a more evenly matched encounter.

Sunderland 0-1 Newcastle.

A feisty North East derby that was more interesting for what didn’t happen than for what did.The home side were moderate pre game favourites,but Larsson’s goalline handball which was missed by World Cup final referee Howard Webb would have changed all that.The red card alone would have improved Newcastle’s PE from 1.1 to 2.04,a successfully converted penalty would have moved it on further to 2.65 points.

Of course none of that happened,but justice was done when Taylor’s second half strike advanced Newcastle’s PE from 1.15 points to 2.29.

Norwich 1-1 Stoke.

Another fascinating game statistically.Trailing by a goal after 63 minutes with their PE languishing at 0.34,Stoke won a dubious penalty and Norwich were reduced to 10 men.The dismissal bumped the Potters’ PE up to 0.66 and if Walters had scored from the spot it would have increased to 1.84.He missed and it needed a 92nd minute Jones equaliser to boost their then PE by over 1400% and ultimately grab a point.

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Arsenal 0-2 Liverpool.

More self inflicted red card woes for Arsenal,whose disciplinary record is atrocious especially when you considered the small amount of time they spend without the ball.The Gunners PE dropped from 1.28 to 0.80 on Frimpong’s dismissal.The own goal further reduced it to 0.1 and the game was virtually over before Liverpool actually had to contribute for themselves.

Swansea 0-0 Wigan.

More penalty action as Swansea welcomed Premier League action and sell out home crowds to the Liberty.A PE of 1.26 would have crashed to 0.31 had Wigan converted their 73 minute spot kick,but Vorm made the save.

Chelsea 2-1 WBA.

Their opening campaign didn’t get much easier for WBA.Long’s early strike wasn’t even enough to guarantee a longterm PE of a point.Anelka’s second half strike was over twice as valuable to Chelsea,as was Malouda’s late goal scored as the game clock ticked and Chelsea’s PE drifted back towards 1.

Aston Villa 3-1 Blackburn.

Standard fare both on the pitch and from a statistical viewpoint.

Bolton 2-3 ManCity.

Silva’s opening goal was worth most in this match.It advanced ManCity’s PE all the way to 2.5 points at a relative early stage of the game.Subsequent Blues scorers needed Bolton to make a game of it for their goals to be of a similar value and the Trotters couldn’t quite oblige.

ManU 3-0 Tottenham.

Little out of the ordinary on show here.Despite the lateness of United’s goals they still had a PE of just shy of 2 prior to Welbeck’s opener.

Everton 0-1 QPR.

Smith’s goal was a high PE value one in a week of high value strikes,flip flopping the pre match favourites in the process.Not a great month for Everton,who are behind in matches played and financially on their uppers.

Wolves 2-0 Fulham.

The first goal in this reasonably even contest was always going to be fairly valuable and so it proved.Doyle’s goal advanced Wolves’ PE from 1.43 to 2.35 and his celebrations cost him a booking.

SCORER TEAM Pre goal
Points Expectation.
Post goal
Points Expectation.
Increased
Points Expectation.
Percentage

Increase

ARSENAL
OG
Liverpool 1.26 2.61 1.36 108.0
MOLUDA Chelsea 1.57 2.86 1.29 81.8
ANELKA Chelsea 0.87 2.11 1.24 143.4
TAYLOR Newcastle 1.15 2.29 1.14 100
JONES Stoke 0.07 1.08 1.01 1476
DOYLE Wolves 1.43 2.35 0.92 64.7
DE LAET Norwich 1.38 2.28 0.90 65.0
WELBECK ManU 1.86 2.75 0.88 47.4
SMITH QPR 0.71 1.53 0.82 115.1
SILVA ManCity 1.83 2.54 0.71 39.0
AGBONLAHOR Aston Villa 1.94 2.57 0.63 32.2
LONG WBA 0.39 0.94 0.55 142.3
JARVIS Wolves 2.37 2.83 0.46 20.0
DAVIES Bolton 0.16 0.55 0.39 251.2
BARRY ManCity 2.55 2.89 0.34 13.3
DZEKO ManCity 2.57 2.90 0.34 13.2
HESKEY Aston Villa 2.58 2.89 0.31 12.1
BENT Aston Villa 2.66 2.95 0.29 11.1
KLASNIC Bolton 0.07 0.27 0.21 319.4
ANDERSON ManU 2.79 2.98 0.19 7.0
PEDERSEN Blackburn 0.04 0.23 0.19 422.9
SUAREZ Liverpool 2.84 2.99 0.15 5.3
ROONEY ManU 2.99 3.00 0.01 0.19

Firstly a brief description of the methodology.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each EPL game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or PE for short.

By comparing those totals immediately before and immediately after a goal is scored it is possible to assign a value to that goal.Similar significant events that occur during a game,such as dismissals,goalkeeping saves and referring mistakes can be treated in the same way.

All probabilities account for the respective abilities of both sides.An early goal by a vastly superior side is for example less “valuable” than one scored by a team in a more evenly matched encounter.

Liverpool 1 – 1 Sunderland.

Liverpool were strongly favoured pregame and started the match with a points expectancy of over 2 points.By the 12th minute their points expectancy had fallen to around 2.1 points,but Suarez’s goal bumped it back up to 2.67 points.Sunderland’s PE was below 2 tenths of a point until Larsson’s superb volley increased it to 8 tenths.Probabilistically Larsson’s was just the more valuable of the two.

QPR 0-4 Bolton.

Cahill’s goal just before the break in a game where Bolton were marginal underdogs was the most valuable of the weekend,bar WBA’s own goal.Worth almost of full point,it catapulted Bolton’s PE from 1.16 to 2.15.QPR’s self inflicted own goal was worth just over half of Cahill’s strike.Klasnic scored just early enough to register a goal worth 0.1 of a point,but Muamba’s goal was late and of negligible value.

WBA 1-2 ManU.

Rooney’s strike was of similar value to Suarez’s score for Liverpool earlier in the day.Such is ManU’s ability compared to mid to lower teams like WBA,that Long’s equaliser only increased WBA’s PE from 0.2 to 0.7.However,each teams PE’s were converging towards 1 when Young’s deflected cross gave the defending Champions a boost of 1.36 points from 1.44 to 2.8 and ultimately all three points.

Wigan 1-1 Norwich.

Wigan were just moderate favourites against newly promoted Norwich,so Watson’s penalty was worth almost 0.8 of a point despite it coming relatively early in the game.Hoolahan’s goal was identical in value to Watson’s as it dragged the Canaries PE off the floor to just over one.Although Wigan remained probabalistically the most likely winners of the two both PE’s converged to 1 at fulltime.

Blackburn 1-2 Wolves.

Virtually identical PE changes for the first two goals in this game and the Wigan Norwich encounter.Ward’s  game breaker was worth almost a point,indicating the value of a goal in games between closely matched teams.

ManCity 4-0 Swansea.

The opening Dzeko goal didn’t come until the 57th min,but that didn’t make it close to being the most valuable of the weekend.There was still over half and hour to play and such was Man City’s pregame superiority over the Welsh side there was still a good chance that there would be goals and the home side would be the team to score them.

Stoke 0-0 Chelsea.

No goals,but if Begovic hadn’t tipped Anelka’s late goalbound header onto the bar Chelsea’s PE would have jumped from 1.56 to 2.67 with just 20 minutes to play and Stoke’s would have dropped from 0.93 to 0.21.

Newcastle 0-0 Arsenal.

No goals here either and  Gervinho’s red card was enough to ensure that Newcastle were just about favourites over the closing 14 minutes,but Arsenal hung on.

Fulham 0-0 Aston Villa.

Dour,uneventful match.


SCORER TEAM Pre goal
Points Expectation.
Post goal
Points Expectation.
Increased
Points Expectation.
Percentage
Increase.
WBA OG ManU 1.44 2.80 1.36 85.6
CAHILL Bolton 1.16 2.15 0.99 88.4
WARD Wolves 1.12 2.10 0.99 88.4
HOOLAHAN Norwich 0.35 1.12 0.77 220.6
WATSON Wigan 1.60 2.37 0.77 47.8
FORMICA Blackburn 1.60 2.37 076 47.4
DZEKO ManCity 2.06 2.80 0.74 35.9
FLETCHER Wolves 0.38 1.11 0.72 188.8
LARSSON Sunderland 0.18 0.80 0.62 339.3
ROONEY ManU 2.11 2.67 0.56 26.5
SUAREZ Liverpool 2.12 2.67 0.56 26.2
QPR OG Bolton 2.25 2.79 0.54 24.2
LONG WBA 0.20 0.73 0.53 269.8
AGUERO ManCity 2.81 2.98 0.17 6.0
KLASNIC Bolton 2.88 2.98 0.11 3.7
SILVA ManCity 2.98 3.00 0.02 0.5
MUAMBA Bolton 2.99 3.00 0.01 0.2
AGUERO ManCity 3.00 3.00 0 0
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